U.S.-China rivalry plays out in ASEAN

What surprised the ASEAN leaders this time was Beijing's lukewarm support — it was no longer the usual thumbs-up as before on any proposed ASEAN plan. Other East Asia foreign ministers and their representatives from Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India were more forthcoming and all welcomed the decision by ASEAN to include the U.S. and Russia.

China's latest posture is obviously linked to the ongoing discussion over the effort to implement the 2002 agreement on peaceful cooperation in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN. Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines are the ASEAN claimants. A recent working group meeting in Vietnam on this issue between the two sides did not yield progress. So far China has been successful in confining the discussion within the bilateral ASEAN framework since the Mischief Reefs debacle in 1995.

Beijing is succinct that the South China Sea disputes must be settled “bilaterally” among the concerned ASEAN claimants only. Other parties should not interfere. At the 27-nation ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi was on the defensive explaining the whole time its position on the South China Sea. At least six members raised this issue. U.S. State Secretary Hillary Clinton wisely focused on the 2002 document and issues related to freedom of navigation, overflight over SCS and international norms. Indeed, this “multilateralized” dimension that non-ASEAN claimants are pushing forward greatly worries China. It could backfire if China views the whole debate as a set up.

Beijing does not want the dispute under any international radar screen. Now, the possibility is high that the expanded EAS could discuss this sensitive topic in the future. Under the current ASEAN chair, Vietnam has been walking a tightrope as it is also a conflicting party. Hanoi did not touch on the problem directly but discreetly reminded all claimants of its concerns. While ASEAN wishes for some tangible progress emanating from the agreement signed eight years ago, the grouping is also mindful of China's growing “intolerance” with its collective assertiveness.

Both sides are now stuck with the guideline signed by ASEAN and China. Among other things, it states that ASEAN would meet first among themselves before the ASEAN claimants discuss with China the procedure which the latter strongly objects to. A compromised way out is unlikely this year under the Vietnamese chair because Beijing does not trust Hanoi, believing the latter is mobilizing others to raise concerns at the ARF. When Indonesia takes up the ASEAN chair next January, a solution must be found as soon as possible before the U.S. and Russia join the EAS, otherwise it can seriously undermine ASEAN-China relations.

Like China, other non-ASEAN EAS leaders have called for more consultations between them and the ASEAN members regarding the future of this strategic dialogue. In fact, the grouping can no longer take these members for granted by imposing its decision verbatim as before without prior consultations. For instance, regarding a modality of expanded EAS, all have to be involved in the consultations. As such, the newly defined East Asian region, which extends from South Asia to the Southern Reefs to both sides of Bering Seas, could be the 21st century's “Great Game,” where the U.S. and China rivalry plays out.

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